⏱ 1 min 30 read
Background
Every quarter, UBS publishes an index measuring the risk of a bubble in the Swiss property market. It compares in particular house prices with changes in incomes and rents. Since the end of 2024, the indicator had been rising steadily, a sign of growing imbalances.
The key points
On Tuesday 10 November 2026, UBS announced that its real estate bubble index fell in the third quarter of 2026. It went from 0.71 points, a revised figure, to 0.64 points. The bank considers the bubble risk moderate and sees a price correction as unlikely in the short term.
The strong rise in incomes slightly lowered the price-to-income ratio, according to the ATS news agency as reported by blue News. Prices of owner-occupied homes nevertheless continue to rise markedly.
Imbalances remain pronounced from one region to another. Tourist areas in Graubünden are the most affected. Heightened risks also exist in the city of Zurich, parts of central Switzerland and the canton of Vaud.
Key figures
- 0.64 points : UBS real estate bubble index in Q3 2026, compared with 0.71 points in the previous quarter
- +3,5 % : rise in residential property prices over one year
- +1,7 % : rise in advertised rents over one year
- +2.5% to +3% : minimum price increase expected by UBS for 2027
What it means for businesses
- Vaud developers and owners : some parts of the canton of Vaud remain classified as higher-risk areas.
- Landlords : rents continue to rise, at a more moderate pace.
Analysis
- According to UBS : housing demand should remain strong despite expected policy rate hikes, with prices rising faster than incomes and rents.
Further reading
Sources
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